The ‘known’ and ‘unknown’ unknowns of future sea level rise
Frank Pattyn 教授
2023.12.14 15:30-17:00
Zoom会议(ID: 928-411-35152)

报告人:Frank Pattyn(比利时布鲁塞尔自由大学 教授)

时间:2023.12.14 15:30-17:00





Frank Pattyn is a glaciologist/ice-sheet modeller and director of the Laboratoire de Glaciologie of the ULB. His research focuses on improving projections of the contribution of large ice sheets (especially Antarctica) to future sea-level rise. He developed a number of ice-sheet models, such as the Blatter-Pattyn model, capable of simulating the behaviour of fast-flowing ice streams and ice flow across subglacial lakes. He is also actively involved in a series of Ice-Sheet Model Intercomparison Projects (ISMIP), such as ISMIP-HOM, ISMIP-HEINO, MISMIP, MISMIP3D, and ABUMIP. He is currently Chairman of the Belgian National Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR delegate) and Associate Chief Editor of Journal of Glaciology.



Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the main source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise. These uncertainties essentially stem from the fact that some regions, such as Thwaites Glacier, may reach tipping points, defined as (regionally) irreversible mass loss, with a warming climate. The exact timing of when these tipping points might occur remains difficult to assess, allowing for a large divergence in timing of onset and mass loss in model projections. Using a state-of-the-art ‘digital twin’ ice sheet model, we aim to determine what physical processes influence the rate of grounding-line retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet and collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet.